Apr 18, 20 what the reinhart rogoff debacle tells us about the mysteries of macroeconomics. In contrast to nber dating, our approach treats any renewed downturn that takes place. From financial crash to debt crisis, nber working papers 15795, national bureau of economic research, inc. May 29, 20 after crunching reinhart and rogoffs data, weve concluded that high debt does not slow growth. The database focuses on providing precise chronological definitions of crisis periods to support the calibration of models in macroprudential analysis. For example, it constitutes roughly 10% of the us federal reserves main monetary aggregate, m2. Our study is based on a new dataset that spans all regions. This time is different eight centuries of financial folly. Reinhart and rogoffs latest paper warns on financial repression harvard duo argue that advanced countries will not be able to return to more sustainable levels of debt through austerity and.
International finance and macroeconomics we examine the evolution of real per capita gdp around 100 systemic banking crises. Rogoff and reinhart defend their numbers business the. The jep paper with vincent reinhart looks at all public debt overhang episodes for advanced countries in our database, dating back to 1800. Rogoff that the united states and europe face extremely difficult challenges in trying to recover from the 20078. Nations around the globe still carry its legacy in the form of substantial public and private debt. On reinhart and rogoff committee for a responsible federal.
Thus, the reinhart 2010 and laeven and valencia 20 databases have. After crunching reinhart and rogoffs data, weve concluded that high debt does not slow growth. The reader will note that the data set is quite massive and can be used to study a huge range of issues. Reinhartrogoff response to critique real time economics wsj. What the reinhartrogoff debacle tells us about the mysteries. We establish these regularities using a unique dataset spanning from denmarks financial panic during the. The decade that preceded the outbreak of the subprime crisis in the summer of. Commodity prices have long been thought to be another important global driver of the depression. We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced e. Its that the republican party would never agree to it. They have also collected statistics on inflation rates from every country where information is available and on banking crises and international capital flows over the past couple of centuries. We showed that standard indicators for the united states, such as asset price inflation, rising leverage, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth.
What the reinhartrogoff debacle tells us about the. Reinhart, rogoff admit excel mistake, rebut other critiques. Reinhartrogoff response to critique real time economics. Reinhart and rogoffs latest paper warns on financial. Rogoff, harvard university and nber abstract this paper offers a panoramic analysis of the history of financial crises dating from englands fourteenthcentury default to the current united. Rogoff and reinharts research on debt and austerity finally collapsed under scrutiny of a team from the university of massachusettsamherst, which received the numbers from the economists. On reinhart and rogoff committee for a responsible. It is welcome because it fills a gap in the literature of financial crises. Apr 18, 20 i agree to receive occasional updates and announcements about forbes products and services. Reinhart nee castellanos, born october 7, 1955 is an american economist and the minos a. The aftermath of financial crises american economic association. Apr 16, 20 reinhartrogoff, continued april 16, 20 7.
Carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff compare economic crises. Rogoff and reinhart said they still found countries with debts that amount to more than 90% of gdp experienced much slower growth the same. So while private sector debt was the cause of this crisis, public sector debt is likely to be the cause of the next one. The rogoffreinhart data scandal reminds us economists. Systemic banking crises database laeven and valencia. A new paper, by university of massachusetts amherst economics doctoral student thomas herndon and professors michael ash and robert pollin, says harvard university scholars carmen reinhart and. And as evidenced from the reinhart and rogoff story, data sharing can play an important role in reaching this goal. Reinhart and rogoff identified what they said was one such tendency. A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises. Published in volume 26, issue 3, pages 6986 of journal of economic perspectives, summer 2012, abstract. Reinhart and rogoff publish formal correction financial. The misreading of reinhart and rogoff january 10, 2012 by robert huebscher if the rallying cry for deficit reduction rests on an intellectual framework, it would be the work of carmen reinhart and ken rogoff, whose book, this time is different, has been hailed for its exhaustive historical study of financial crises. The financial crisis has laid bare the fact that the dividing line between emerging markets and advanced countries is not as crisp as once thought.
Reinhart and rogoff publish formal correction financial times. In a 2010 paper carmen reinhart, now a professor at harvard kennedy school, and kenneth rogoff, an economist. Retire to a quiet spot with a copy of this time is different. Reinhart and rogoff could have been doing much more to call out the inanity of this position, which has blocked both more. Reinhart, rogoff, and the excel error that changed. Apr 18, 20 rogoff and reinhart s research on debt and austerity finally collapsed under scrutiny of a team from the university of massachusettsamherst, which received the numbers from the economists.
Harvard economists carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff have published an errata to their 2010 paper on public debt and growth, acknowledging more errors in. We examine the evolution of real per capita gdp around 100 systemic banking crises. Apr 18, 20 harvard university economists carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff have acknowledged making a spreadsheet calculation mistake in a 2010 research paper, growth in a time of debt pdf, which. Reinhart and rogoff were wrong even without the spreadsheet error. International finance and macroeconomics the historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high and middletolowincome countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the runups and the aftermath. E31,e4,e6,f3,f4,h6,n10 abstract historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises carmen m. Most fundamental of all is precisely the start that reinhart and rogoff provide, with their charts of crisis sequences and tables of the various early warning signsa better understanding of the intricate pathways by which a thundery atmosphere. Previously, she was the dennis weatherstone senior fellow at the peterson institute for international economics. Reinhart and rogoff have compiled an impressive database, which covers eight centuries of government debt defaults from around the world. On this page we present data collected over many years by carmen reinhart with her coauthors ken rogoff, christoph trebesch, and vincent reinhart.
The great recession fades from memory, but its effects linger. Devin leonardnew york timesreinhart and rogoff have compiled an impressive database. How governments have dealt with such debt overhangs in the past 200 years is the subject of a paper by carmen reinhart, zombanakis professor of the international financial system at harvard kennedy school. I agree to receive occasional updates and announcements about forbes products and services. The overall average result shows that public debt overhang episodes over 90% gdp for five years or more are associated with 1. Ash and pollin find, as discussed in an earlier quartz column. Herndon, ash and pollin replicate reinhart and rogoff and find that coding. Jan 10, 2012 the misreading of reinhart and rogoff january 10, 2012 by robert huebscher if the rallying cry for deficit reduction rests on an intellectual framework, it would be the work of carmen reinhart and ken rogoff, whose book, this time is different, has been hailed for its exhaustive historical study of financial crises. Rogoff, harvard university and nber abstract this paper offers a panoramic analysis of the history of financial crises dating.
A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises, annals of economics and finance, society for aef, vol. Harvard university economists carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff have acknowledged making a spreadsheet calculation mistake in a 2010 research. Debt and growth revisiting reinhartrogoff free exchange. The historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high and middletolowincome countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the runups and the aftermath. Zombanakis professor of the international financial system at harvard kennedy school. I dont see using excel or any other software dangerous or unethical. This paper offers a panoramic analysis of the history of financial crises dating from englands fourteenthcentury default to the current united states subprime financial crisis. Despite advances in transactions technologies, paper currency still constitutes a notable percentage of the money supply in most countries. The ultimate goal is to have an accurate scientific record, preventing more studies like reinhart and rogoffs from causing harm.
Influential reinhartrogoff economics paper suffers spreadsheet. Some lessons learned and those forgotten1 prepared by carmen m. Id like to receive the forbes daily dozen newsletter to get the top 12. A new database for financial crises in european countries. May 08, 20 harvard economists carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff have published an errata to their 2010 paper on public debt and growth, acknowledging more errors in the figures, but leaving their basic. On average, it takes about eight years to reach the precrisis level of income. It seems neither side understands that the crisis is not deficits, or deficits that arent big enough for keynesians, rather. A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises nber. Rogoff that the united states and europe face extremely difficult challenges in trying to recover from the 20078 financial crisis and the great recession that. Part of the costs of these crises owes to the protracted nature of recovery. The rogoffreinhart data scandal reminds us economists arent.
A brief guide to the reinhartrogoff discussion world. While it may seem hard to believe, prior to reinhart and rogoffs this time is different. Apr 21, 20 reinhart and rogoff originally claimed that for this last of the three data sets, real growth rates were around 4% for low debt levels, 3% for moderate debt levels, and 0. Zombanakis professor of the international financial system at. What the reinhartrogoff debacle tells us about the mysteries of macroeconomics. Rogoff authorized for distribution by stijn claessens december 20 abstract even after one of the most severe multiyear crises on record in the advanced. Mohamed elerian, author of when markets collide i would say that her carmen reinhart s book with ken rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work. The aftermath of financial crises american economic. A guide to sovereign debt data, wp19195, september 2019.
Apr 17, 20 a new paper, by university of massachusetts amherst economics doctoral student thomas herndon and professors michael ash and robert pollin, says harvard university scholars carmen reinhart and. Carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. This paper presents a new database for financial crises in european countries, which serves as an important step towards establishing a common ground for macroprudential oversight and policymaking in the eu. We merged the banking crises database of reinhart 2010, which identifies the. Course syllabi conferences databases directory encyclopedia.
Heres a deep and rewarding assignment for all of you, young and old, poor and rich, bullish and bearish. This weeks free exchange column discusses the weeks hot macroeconomic controversy. Reinhart and rogoff s superb book is a mustread for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow. Politicians, commentators, and activists widely cited the paper in political debates over the effectiveness of austerity in fiscal policy for debtburdened. This data is also located on carmen reinharts website. Apr 17, 20 rogoff and reinhart defend their numbers. A directory of existing publiclyavailable sovereign debt databases, featuring.
Reinhart, rogoff and harris 2014 and sources cited therein. No 882, nber working papers from national bureau of economic research, inc abstract. Reinhart and rogoff originally claimed that for this last of the three data sets, real growth rates were around 4% for low debt levels, 3% for moderate debt levels, and 0. Jan 09, 2009 we have been reading a lot lately about economists carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff who have done several studies predicting how our current economic dilemma will play out.
Systemic risk indicators and financial crises international. Figure 2, however, is an observation we have emphasized on the basis of our earlier work reinhart and rogoff, 2009 that the subprime crisis is not an anomaly in the context of the prewwii era. Five to six years after the onset of crisis, only germany and the us out of 12 systemic cases have reached their 20072008 peaks in real income. These include banking crisis dates for more than 70 countries from 1800present, exchange rate crises, stock market crises, sovereign debt growth and. Apr 26, 20 the problem in american politics today isnt that krugman, reinhart, and rogoff couldnt agree on a plan theyre all happy with. To contact the editor responsible for this article. These include banking crisis dates for more than 70. We have been reading a lot lately about economists carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff who have done several studies predicting how our current economic dilemma will. Apr 16, 20 a new paper by thomas herndon, michael ash and robert pollin calls into question research on public debt and its effects on growth by harvard university economists carmen reinhart and kenneth rogoff. Bob lenzner, a fine new history of financial debacles. Most of the database is drawn from the past century or two, but some of the. Reinhart and rogoff write,that basic data on domestic debt are so opaque and difficult to obtain is proof that governments will go to great lengths to hide their books when things are going wrong, just as financial institutions have done in the contemporary crisis. In their paper ms reinhart and mr rogoff sorted the figures into four categories of indebtedness and took average growth rates for each.
1355 1454 79 61 80 269 310 808 726 986 410 1490 1547 621 1017 402 951 1431 1463 670 245 1142 106 1477 678 287 1485 215 922 1357 666 983